Sea changes in the music industry, a threat analysis
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The future of music may be friction-free sales and distribution on the Internet, but nothing can replace the excitement of a live performance. |
The traditional recording industry have a brick and mortar mindset (their biggest vulnerability) that enables attackers (indy producers and musicians that work on the Internet) to cause them damage.
The big record companies like Sony Columbia built their business over the years with a small number of big stars that they promoted very heavily using conventional marketing techniques. Elton John, mega-promoted (and apparently in huge personal debt...) has sold more than 250 million albums plus over one hundred million singles.
Historically musicians needed the big studios for A) their technology (recording studios) B) Production capability (produce playable media) and C) marketing distribution channel (of brick and mortar stores).
What are the threats to the brick and mortar mentality of the record companies?
A) The technology to produce an album of high quality is sub $15k and in your home.
Home recording technology enables anyone to produce an album at home and deprives the record company of their lock on artists.
B) Production cost is zero. Upload a MP3 file to a server and your users pay the cost of the download.
The Internet enables anyone to produce an album or single and render worthless the record company's production facilities.
C) Distribution channel is the Internet - blogs, forums, search engines, email and social networks.
The Internet enables anyone to distribute an album or single and bypass the record company's distribution channels.
My goodness - this means that GAASSP - the record companies have been disintermediated by technology and the Internet. The world is now a level playing field ( or "the world is flat") for artists anywere in the world. If you have any doubts about that surf to garageband.com
What's next?
1) Equal opportunity for all musicians. That means no more begging and pleading for a chance to record your latest string quartet composition. That means that a jazz quartet in Slovenia has an equal opportunity at winning the hearts of jazz-lovers in Manhattan as a group in Soho.
2) More revenue for musicians since the record companies are disintermediated.
3) What will happen to the CD/DVD? Well - the copy protection for DVD is broken anyhow so there is no point in pretending that the record companies really want to protect intellectual property of their artists. They want to protect their revenue with fear and scare tactics. In reality - there is simply a new kid on the block who is far more efficient and far more available for instant gratification than Sony Columbia.
I predict that the CD/DVD will become a media used to promote live performances. Give them away for free or use them as a bonus coupon for 15% off at the next Mingus Big Band appearance.
Live performances generate revenue for artists and for a reasonable price for a pay per download for a single track - there is no reason an independent artist cannot monetize his or her work at almost zero production and distribution cost.


